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Treasury Yields Fluctuate

Published June 27, 2025

U.S. Treasury yields declined early in the week following a weaker-than-expected consumer confidence report. Yields continued to trend lower at the end of the week as the continuing claims for unemployment rose more than expected.

On Tuesday, the Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell 5.4 points to 93.0 in June. That marked a decline from May’s reading of 98.4 and came in below economists’ forecast of 99.8. The decline reflected lingering concerns over tariffs, inflation and broader economic uncertainty, which continue to weigh on consumer sentiment.

“Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices,” said senior economist of global indicators at the Conference Board, Stephanie Guichard. “Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June.”

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield opened the week of June 23 at 4.38% and traded as low as 4.24% on Thursday. The 30-year Treasury bond opened the week at 4.90% and traded as low as 4.80% on Thursday.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial claims for unemployment were 236,000 for the week ending June 21. This was down 10,000 from the prior week and fell under analysts’ expectations of 245,000. Continuing unemployment claims increased by 37,000 to 1.97 million.

“The data are consistent with softening of labor market conditions, particularly on the hiring side of the labor market equation,” said lead economist at Oxford Economics, Nancy Vanden Houten. “For now, we don't think the labor market is weak enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates before December, but the risk is increasing that once the Fed starts to lower rates, it will have some catching up to do.”

The 10-year Treasury note yield finished the week of 6/23 at 4.29%, while the 30-year Treasury note yield finished the week at 4.83%.